| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 46.9% | 52% | -5.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 74.6% | 78% | -3.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 61.7% | 69% | -7.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.8% | 47% | +13.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.9% | 26.0% | 46.0% |
| xgboost | 28.0% | 31.7% | 40.3% |
| logistic | 28.0% | 27.7% | 44.2% |
| Doncaster | Stockport | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1480 | 1576 |
| Surface Elo | 1480 | 1576 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.80 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.25 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 4 W · 1 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Leicester | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Leicester | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Burton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Burton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Liverpool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Bromley | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Bromley | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Barnsley | 3 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Barnsley | 3 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Leeds | 1 - 3 | L |
| 29 Dec 2025 | Stockport | 4 - 2 | Doncaster |
| 09 Dec 2025 | Doncaster | 0 - 2 | Stockport |
| 27 Jan 2024 | Doncaster | 1 - 5 | Stockport |
| 07 Oct 2023 | Stockport | 1 - 0 | Doncaster |
| 04 Mar 2023 | Stockport | 0 - 0 | Doncaster |
| 16 Aug 2022 | Doncaster | 2 - 1 | Stockport |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.91 | 52.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.80 | 26.3% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |