| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.3% | 72% | -8.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 71.4% | 28.5% |
| logistic | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| Elmer Moller | Tiago Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1637 | 1450 |
| Surface Elo | 1637 | 1450 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | A | Zsombor Piros | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Thiago Monteiro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Vilius Gaubas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Pol Martin Tiffon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Pol Martin Tiffon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Elmer Moller | 2 - 1 | Tiago Pereira |
| 17 Nov 2025 | Elmer Moller | 2 - 1 | Tiago Pereira |
| 23 Sep 2024 | Elmer Moller | 2 - 0 | Tiago Pereira |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.38 | 72.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |