OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-25
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Manchester United 0.80 0 - 3 1.00 Bournemouth
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 50.8%47%+4.3%✗ miss
DCHome or away 76.6%77%-0.7%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 66.5%63%+3.3%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.4%62%-6.4%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 56.2%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson47.5%25.2%27.3%
xgboost46.7%24.6%28.7%
logistic54.1%25.7%20.2%
Inputs the models saw
Manchester UnitedBournemouth
Elo (pre-match)17861750
Surface Elo17861750
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.801.00
Form trend-0.10-0.30
Season points per game1.000.86
Season goals for / game1.431.29
Season goals against / game1.431.86
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W3 W · 4 D
Manchester United: last 5
20 OctHAltrincham2 - 6L
18 OctALeeds1 - 1D
13 OctHAFC Emley1 - 1D
10 OctHTottenham1 - 1D
06 OctAAlfreton Town FC0 - 1L
Bournemouth: last 5
22 OctHAc Milan3 - 0W
18 OctHSunderland2 - 0W
18 OctHSunderland2 - 0W
15 OctHSturm Graz3 - 0W
12 OctHPlymouth6 - 1W
Head to head
20 Mar 2026Bournemouth2 - 2Manchester United
15 Dec 2025Manchester United4 - 4Bournemouth
27 Apr 2025Bournemouth1 - 1Manchester United
22 Dec 2024Manchester United0 - 3Bournemouth
13 Apr 2024Bournemouth2 - 2Manchester United
09 Dec 2023Manchester United0 - 3Bournemouth
20 May 2023Bournemouth0 - 1Manchester United
03 Jan 2023Manchester United3 - 0Bournemouth
04 Jul 2020Manchester United5 - 2Bournemouth
02 Nov 2019Bournemouth1 - 0Manchester United
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.8834.7%25 Oct 14:00
Bet3651X2draw3.5028.6%25 Oct 14:00
Bet3651X2home2.4041.7%25 Oct 14:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.8055.6%25 Oct 14:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.0050.0%25 Oct 14:00
Generated 2026-10-30 18:20 UTC