| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 77.4% | 87% | -9.6% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 22.4% | 77.5% |
| logistic | 11.8% | 88.2% |
| markov | abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0) | |
| Matteo Berrettini | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1886 | 2333 |
| Surface Elo | 1886 | 2333 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W 路 0 D |
| 04 Nov | H | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | H | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Oct | H | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Nov | A | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Jul 2023 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3 - 1 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 14 Feb 2022 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 17 Jan 2022 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 3 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 25 Oct 2021 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | Matteo Berrettini |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.17 | 85.5% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| 1xBet | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.43 | 18.4% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| 888sport | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.12 | 89.3% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| 888sport | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 6.00 | 16.7% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| BetAnything | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.17 | 85.5% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| BetAnything | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.10 | 19.6% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Betclic (FR) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.12 | 89.3% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Betclic (FR) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 4.80 | 20.8% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.20 | 83.3% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.80 | 17.2% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.21 | 82.6% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Matteo Berrettini | 6.00 | 16.7% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.17 | 85.5% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.46 | 18.3% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Betsson | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.15 | 87.0% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Betsson | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.60 | 17.9% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Coolbet | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.16 | 86.2% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Coolbet | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 6.00 | 16.7% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| GTbets | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.12 | 89.3% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| GTbets | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.69 | 17.6% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.14 | 87.7% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.75 | 17.4% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.20 | 83.3% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.80 | 17.2% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.21 | 82.6% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Matteo Berrettini | 6.00 | 16.7% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Nordic Bet | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.15 | 87.0% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Nordic Bet | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.60 | 17.9% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.18 | 84.8% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.60 | 17.9% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.10 | 90.9% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.25 | 19.1% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.15 | 87.0% | 05 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.75 | 17.4% | 05 Nov 06:15 |
| Tipico | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.10 | 90.9% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Tipico | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.70 | 17.5% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.10 | 90.9% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 4.75 | 21.1% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.14 | 87.7% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.75 | 17.4% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.14 | 87.7% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.75 | 17.4% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| William Hill | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.12 | 89.3% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| William Hill | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 6.00 | 16.7% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.14 | 87.7% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 5.50 | 18.2% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.12 | 89.3% | 05 Nov 06:01 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 4.70 | 21.3% | 05 Nov 06:01 |