| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.9% | 49% | +3.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 48.3% | 51.6% |
| logistic | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Diego Dedura | Felipe Meligeni Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1638 | 1635 |
| Surface Elo | 1638 | 1635 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.10 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Nicolas Kicker | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Frazier Rengifo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Nicolas Kicker | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Adria Soriano Barrera | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Juan Pablo Ficovich | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Juan Sebastian Gomez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Carlos Maria Zarate | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Diego Dedura | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Diego Dedura | 0 - 2 | Felipe Meligeni Alves |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.72 | 58.1% | 22 Oct 06:15 |