| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 78.9% | 43% | +36.3% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 95.8% | 73% | +23.2% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 95.2% | 59% | +36.3% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.8% | 51% | +3.8% | |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.3% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 86.2% | 9.7% | 4.0% |
| xgboost | 82.9% | 12.0% | 5.0% |
| logistic | 87.4% | 11.0% | 1.6% |
| Benfica | Chaves | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1863 | 1401 |
| Surface Elo | 1863 | 1401 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 896 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 29 Oct | H | Gil Vicente | 4 - 1 | W |
| 26 Oct | A | Santa Clara | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Feirense | 0 - 0 | D |
| 22 Oct | A | AC Omonia Nicosia | 4 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Celtic | 4 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Sp Braga | 0 - 1 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Vizela | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Os Marialvas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Brito SC | 4 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Lusitania FC Lourosa | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Mar 2024 | Benfica | 1 - 0 | Chaves |
| 04 Nov 2023 | Chaves | 0 - 2 | Benfica |
| 15 Apr 2023 | Chaves | 1 - 0 | Benfica |
| 29 Oct 2022 | Benfica | 5 - 0 | Chaves |
| 25 Feb 2019 | Benfica | 4 - 0 | Chaves |
| 27 Sep 2018 | Chaves | 2 - 2 | Benfica |
| 20 Jan 2018 | Benfica | 3 - 0 | Chaves |
| 14 Aug 2017 | Chaves | 0 - 1 | Benfica |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.78 | 56.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.96 | 51.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |