| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 73.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 16.9% | 83.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| logistic | 21.3% | 78.7% |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1847 | 2276 |
| Surface Elo | 1847 | 2276 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 2.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.83 | 1.71 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.42 | 0.57 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 28 Oct | A | Jurij Rodionov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Zizou Bergs | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Zizou Bergs | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 May 2022 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| 31 May 2021 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3 - 0 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||