| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 46.5% | 45% | +1.2% | |
| DC | Home or away | 76.6% | 77% | -0.2% | |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 59.1% | 60% | -1.0% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% | 68% | +0.8% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 66.8% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.1% | 24.8% | 35.1% |
| xgboost | 27.1% | 22.1% | 50.8% |
| logistic | 27.4% | 28.6% | 44.0% |
| Elversberg | Mainz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1576 | 1613 |
| Surface Elo | 1576 | 1613 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.67 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Darmstadt | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | RB Leipzig | 0 - 4 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | RB Leipzig | 0 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Augsburg | 4 - 3 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Augsburg | 4 - 3 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Bochum | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Werder Bremen | 2 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Werder Bremen | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Schalke 04 | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Schalke 04 | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.19 | 45.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.97 | 25.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.21 | 31.1% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.47 | 68.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.75 | 36.4% | 30 Oct 06:15 |