| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 42.4% | 57% | -15.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.0% | 84% | -11.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.2% | 74% | -18.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 65% | -9.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.7% | 28.9% | 33.4% |
| xgboost | 38.1% | 24.4% | 37.5% |
| logistic | 37.5% | 35.2% | 27.3% |
| Empoli | Perugia | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1382 | 1415 |
| Surface Elo | 1382 | 1415 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 1257 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Oct | A | Cesena | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Cesena | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Vicenza | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | L.R. Vicenza | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Ascoli | 1 - 1 | D |
| 23 Oct | H | Pescara | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Campobasso FC | 5 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Vado FC | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | AS Gubbio | 3 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Reggiana | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Feb 2020 | Perugia | 0 - 1 | Empoli |
| 28 Sep 2019 | Empoli | 3 - 0 | Perugia |
| 18 May 2018 | Empoli | 2 - 1 | Perugia |
| 28 Dec 2017 | Perugia | 2 - 4 | Empoli |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.70 | 27.0% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.74 | 57.5% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.54 | 64.9% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 28 Oct 06:15 |