| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.6% | 75% | -12.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 18.1% | 81.9% |
| logistic | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Kai Wehnelt | Pierluigi Basile | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1395 | 1464 |
| Surface Elo | 1395 | 1464 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 13 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 14 Sep | H | Kilian Feldbausch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Facundo Mena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Nick Hardt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Aug | A | Calvin Hemery | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Jul | A | Florian Broska | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Giovanni Oradini | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Tunas, Guillermo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | A | Maxim Mrva | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Jun | A | Marco Cecchinato | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.34 | 74.6% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 27 Sep 06:15 |