| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 68.1% | 87% | -18.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 85.9% | 14.1% |
| logistic | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| Daniil Medvedev | Jan Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2030 | 1823 |
| Surface Elo | 2030 | 1823 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.63 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.38 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 4 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 7 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Rodrigo Alujas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Novak Djokovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Francisco Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Francisco Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Jan Lennard Struff | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Martin Landaluce | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | Alejandro Tabilo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | Roman Andres Burruchaga | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct 2026 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | Jan Lennard Struff |
| 03 Jul 2026 | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 3 | Jan Lennard Struff |
| 24 Feb 2025 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | Jan Lennard Struff |
| 10 Feb 2025 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | Jan Lennard Struff |
| 01 Jul 2024 | Daniil Medvedev | 3 - 1 | Jan Lennard Struff |
| 28 Jun 2021 | Daniil Medvedev | 3 - 1 | Jan Lennard Struff |
| 14 Jun 2021 | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | Jan Lennard Struff |
| 12 Aug 2019 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | Jan Lennard Struff |
| 20 Feb 2017 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 1 | Jan Lennard Struff |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.00 | 16.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.15 | 87.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |