| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.9% | 43% | +11.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.0% | 70% | +10.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 72.1% | 58% | +14.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.6% | 62% | -3.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.6% | 25.8% | 27.5% |
| xgboost | 56.5% | 24.7% | 18.7% |
| logistic | 59.8% | 23.9% | 16.2% |
| Lyon | Crystal Palace | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1743 | 1674 |
| Surface Elo | 1743 | 1674 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Lens | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Lens | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Rennes | 4 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Paris FC | 0 - 0 | D |
| 04 Sep | H | Auxerre | 3 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Nottingham Forest | 3 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Nottingham Forest | 3 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Plymouth | 1 - 5 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Leeds | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Ipswich | 2 - 3 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.99 | 33.4% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.77 | 26.5% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.38 | 42.0% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.61 | 62.1% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 15 Oct 06:15 |