| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.2% | 64% | -11.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.9% | 89% | -10.1% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.2% | 83% | -12.9% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 48% | +6.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 56.5% | 27.2% | 16.3% |
| xgboost | 50.1% | 29.1% | 20.8% |
| logistic | 55.7% | 24.6% | 19.6% |
| Livingston | Ayr | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1540 | 1467 |
| Surface Elo | 1540 | 1467 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.63 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.88 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 25 Sep | A | Raith Rvs | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Raith Rovers FC | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Inverness C | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Sep | A | Morton | 4 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Stenhousemuir | 0 - 1 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Stenhousemuir | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | Queens Park | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Inverness C | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Partick | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Apr 2025 | Livingston | 5 - 0 | Ayr |
| 22 Feb 2025 | Ayr | 1 - 2 | Livingston |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Livingston | 0 - 1 | Ayr |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Ayr | 1 - 2 | Livingston |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.75 | 21.1% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.59 | 62.9% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 03 Oct 06:15 |