| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.0% | 53% | +0.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| logistic | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Filippo Moroni | Fabrizio Andaloro | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1497 | 1449 |
| Surface Elo | 1497 | 1449 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Sep | A | Gianmarco Ferrari | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Nov | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Aug | H | Robin Bertrand | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Aug | A | Fabrizio Andaloro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Jay Clarke | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Colasanto, Francesco Giuseppe | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Emile Hudd | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Mar | A | Andrew Paulson | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Nov | H | Nerman Fatic | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Fabrizio Andaloro | 0 - 2 | Filippo Moroni |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.86 | 53.8% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.88 | 53.2% | 28 Sep 06:15 |