| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 69.4% | 76% | -6.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 79.3% | 20.6% |
| logistic | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| Ugo Blanchet | Tom Paris | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1583 | 1524 |
| Surface Elo | 1583 | 1524 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.14 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Daniel De Jonge | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jerome Kym | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Tom Paris | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Nicolas Tepmahc | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Clement Chidekh | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Ugo Blanchet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Niels Visker | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 May | A | Lukas Pokorny | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Tom Paris | 0 - 2 | Ugo Blanchet |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.32 | 75.8% | 13 Oct 06:15 |