| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 72.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 76.6% | 23.3% |
| logistic | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| Carlos Alcaraz | Jiri Lehecka | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2271 | 1984 |
| Surface Elo | 2271 | 1984 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Jiri Lehecka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Jaume Munar | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Jaume Munar | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Denis Shapovalov | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Matteo Arnaldi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Valentin Vacherot | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Valentin Vacherot | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct 2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Jiri Lehecka |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3 - 0 | Jiri Lehecka |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | Jiri Lehecka |
| 17 Feb 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1 - 2 | Jiri Lehecka |
| 19 Jun 2023 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Jiri Lehecka |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||