OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-30

🎾 tennis_atp_vienna_open · Friday 30 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · scheduled

Tommy Paul 1.80 14:00 1.80 Carlos Alcaraz

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	65.9%	78%	-12.2%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.0%	35.2%
xgboost	29.7%	70.3%
logistic	31.0%	69.0%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Tommy Paul	Carlos Alcaraz
Elo (pre-match)	2015	2279
Surface Elo	2015	2279
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.80
Form trend	-0.30	-0.30
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	2 W	6 W · 0 D

Tommy Paul: last 5

29 Oct	H	Luciano Darderi	2 - 0	W
27 Oct	H	Andrey Rublev	2 - 0	W
24 Oct	H	Taylor Fritz	0 - 1	L
24 Oct	A	Taylor Fritz	0 - 2	L
23 Oct	A	Corentin Moutet	2 - 1	W

Carlos Alcaraz: last 5

29 Oct	A	Nikoloz Basilashvili	2 - 0	W
27 Oct	A	Karen Khachanov	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	A	Zizou Bergs	0 - 2	L
12 Oct	H	Zizou Bergs	0 - 2	L
10 Oct	A	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2 - 0	W

Head to head

06 Sep 2026	Carlos Alcaraz	3 - 0	Tommy Paul
25 Jan 2026	Carlos Alcaraz	3 - 0	Tommy Paul
26 May 2025	Carlos Alcaraz	3 - 0	Tommy Paul
01 Jul 2024	Carlos Alcaraz	3 - 1	Tommy Paul
14 Aug 2023	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 1	Tommy Paul
07 Aug 2023	Carlos Alcaraz	1 - 2	Tommy Paul
20 Mar 2023	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	Tommy Paul
08 Aug 2022	Carlos Alcaraz	1 - 2	Tommy Paul

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.29	77.5%	30 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.77	26.5%	30 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.29	77.5%	30 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.60	27.8%	30 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.27	78.7%	30 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.85	26.0%	30 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.26	79.4%	30 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.60	27.8%	30 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.31	76.3%	30 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Tommy Paul	4.10	24.4%	30 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Carlos Alcaraz	1.32	75.8%	30 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Tommy Paul	4.30	23.3%	30 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.27	78.7%	30 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Tommy Paul	4.00	25.0%	30 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.27	78.7%	30 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.65	27.4%	30 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.27	78.7%	30 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.80	26.3%	30 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.23	81.3%	30 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	4.10	24.4%	30 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.27	78.7%	30 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.72	26.9%	30 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.31	76.3%	30 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Tommy Paul	4.10	24.4%	30 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Carlos Alcaraz	1.32	75.8%	30 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Tommy Paul	4.30	23.3%	30 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.27	78.7%	30 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.65	27.4%	30 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.28	78.1%	30 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.99	25.1%	30 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.19	84.0%	30 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.90	25.6%	30 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.28	78.1%	30 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	3.85	26.0%	30 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.22	82.0%	30 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.80	26.3%	30 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.23	81.3%	30 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.35	29.8%	30 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.23	81.3%	30 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Tommy Paul	4.10	24.4%	30 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.23	81.3%	30 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	4.10	24.4%	30 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.29	77.5%	30 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.60	27.8%	30 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.26	79.4%	30 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	4.10	24.4%	30 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.24	80.7%	30 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.75	26.7%	30 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 14:02 UTC