| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.6% | 57% | -4.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| logistic | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Elmer Moller | Vilius Gaubas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1645 | 1644 |
| Surface Elo | 1645 | 1644 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Zsombor Piros | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Thiago Monteiro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Vilius Gaubas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Luka Mikrut | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Duje Ajdukovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Joao Domingues | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Luka Mikrut | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Elmer Moller | 2 - 1 | Vilius Gaubas |
| 04 Nov 2024 | Elmer Moller | 2 - 1 | Vilius Gaubas |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.74 | 57.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.00 | 50.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |