OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-19
🇪🇸 La Liga · Saturday 19 September 2026, 12:00 UTC · finished
Osasuna 1.20 1 - 1 1.40 Vallecano
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 43.5%41%+2.7%✗ miss
DCHome or away 71.9%74%-1.6%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 60.6%57%+3.3%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 68.7%50%+18.8%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 65.7%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson43.5%28.1%28.3%
logisticfailed: ValueError
xgboostfailed: ValueError
Inputs the models saw
OsasunaVallecano
Elo (pre-match)15621655
Surface Elo15621655
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.201.40
Form trend0.90-0.40
Season points per game1.171.17
Season goals for / game0.831.67
Season goals against / game2.002.50
Rest days23
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W3 W · 1 D
Osasuna: last 5
16 SepAAtlético Madrid0 - 4L
12 SepHEspanol0 - 2L
06 SepAAlaves2 - 5L
31 AugHGetafe1 - 0W
27 AugACelta2 - 1W
Vallecano: last 5
15 SepHEspanol2 - 1W
12 SepAReal Madrid1 - 4L
05 SepHSantander3 - 2W
31 AugABarcelona2 - 5L
20 AugHAlaves1 - 1D
Head to head
24 Jan 2026Vallecano1 - 3Osasuna
14 Sep 2025Osasuna2 - 0Vallecano
19 Jan 2025Osasuna1 - 1Vallecano
16 Sep 2024Vallecano3 - 1Osasuna
20 Apr 2024Vallecano2 - 1Osasuna
15 Dec 2023Osasuna1 - 0Vallecano
14 Apr 2023Vallecano2 - 1Osasuna
04 Sep 2022Osasuna2 - 1Vallecano
12 Feb 2022Vallecano0 - 3Osasuna
02 Oct 2021Osasuna1 - 0Vallecano
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.7037.0%19 Sep 13:00
Bet3651X2draw3.2530.8%19 Sep 13:00
Bet3651X2home2.6338.0%19 Sep 13:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.1047.6%19 Sep 13:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.7357.8%19 Sep 13:00
SportyBet1X2away2.8335.3%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBet1X2draw3.4129.3%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBet1X2home2.6837.3%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9850.5%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8753.5%19 Sep 06:16
Generated 2026-10-30 19:25 UTC