| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.4% | 29% | +15.0% | |
| DC | Home or away | 74.5% | 82% | -7.8% | |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 57.4% | 39% | +18.1% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 57% | +0.3% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.3% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.4% | 28.4% | 34.1% |
| xgboost | 32.5% | 26.3% | 41.2% |
| logistic | 25.7% | 28.3% | 46.0% |
| Padova | Mantova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1425 | 1481 |
| Surface Elo | 1425 | 1481 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Sudtirol | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Sudtirol | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Avellino | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Avellino | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Cittadella | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Cremonese | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Oct | H | Cremonese | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Virtus Entella | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Virtus Entella | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Palermo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Padova | 1 - 2 | Mantova |
| 08 Nov 2025 | Mantova | 1 - 0 | Padova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.40 | 29.4% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.89 | 52.9% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.74 | 57.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |