OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
🇮🇹 Serie A · Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC · finished
Venezia 0.00 1 - 0 1.40 Napoli
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 54.8%58%-2.9%✗ miss
DCDraw or away 79.6%83%-3.3%✗ miss
DNBAway (DNB) 72.2%76%-4.2%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 59.4%58%+1.6%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 55.1%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson12.4%20.5%67.1%
xgboost23.0%20.5%56.5%
logistic28.7%27.2%44.0%
Inputs the models saw
VeneziaNapoli
Elo (pre-match)15641794
Surface Elo15641794
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.001.40
Form trend0.00-0.70
Season points per game0.001.67
Season goals for / game0.831.67
Season goals against / game2.671.00
Rest days46
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W3 W · 1 D
Venezia: last 5
12 OctAAtalanta1 - 3L
12 OctAAtalanta1 - 3L
10 OctHLecco0 - 1L
19 SepHLazio0 - 2L
19 SepHBrescia1 - 1D
Napoli: last 5
13 OctAVillarreal1 - 3L
10 OctHFrosinone3 - 0W
10 OctHFrosinone3 - 0W
10 OctHPisa1 - 0W
20 SepAFiorentina1 - 1D
Head to head
16 Mar 2025Venezia0 - 0Napoli
29 Dec 2024Napoli1 - 0Venezia
06 Feb 2022Venezia0 - 2Napoli
22 Aug 2021Napoli2 - 0Venezia
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away1.8055.6%17 Oct 14:00
Bet3651X2draw3.7526.7%17 Oct 14:00
Bet3651X2home4.3323.1%17 Oct 14:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.7357.8%17 Oct 14:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.1047.6%17 Oct 14:00
SportyBet1X2away1.7756.5%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.0124.9%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home4.8220.8%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7357.8%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.1546.5%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC