| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 45.2% | 51% | -6.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.7% | 76% | -2.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 58.8% | 71% | -12.7% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.3% | 50% | +14.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 61.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.3% | 28.2% | 30.5% |
| xgboost | 38.1% | 32.2% | 29.7% |
| logistic | 43.3% | 26.9% | 29.8% |
| Valladolid | Eldense | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1414 | 1425 |
| Surface Elo | 1414 | 1425 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Albacete | 5 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Albacete | 5 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Las Palmas | 2 - 2 | D |
| 04 Oct | A | Las Palmas | 2 - 2 | D |
| 27 Sep | H | Cordoba | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | CD Acero | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | UD Vall de Uxo | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Cordoba | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Cordoba | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Hercules CF B | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Apr 2024 | Valladolid | 1 - 0 | Eldense |
| 04 Oct 2023 | Eldense | 0 - 1 | Valladolid |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.95 | 51.3% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 16 Oct 06:15 |