| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.1% | 71% | -13.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 65.5% | 34.5% |
| logistic | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Jacob Fearnley | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1747 | 1735 |
| Surface Elo | 1747 | 1735 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 14 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | George Loffhagen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Luca Nardi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Maxim Mrva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Jan Kumstat | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Edas Butvilas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Edas Butvilas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Chun Hsin Tseng | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Jacob Fearnley | 2 - 0 | Jan Kumstat |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.41 | 70.9% | 15 Oct 06:15 |