| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.6% | 52% | +7.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 55.1% | 44.8% |
| logistic | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Hugo Gaston | Moise Kouame | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1728 | 1628 |
| Surface Elo | 1728 | 1628 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.17 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Oct | H | Daniil Glinka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Daniel Jade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Hugo Grenier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Lorenzo Musetti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Lorenzo Musetti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Lorenzo Sonego | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Lorenzo Sonego | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Mar 2026 | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 1 | Moise Kouame |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.80 | 55.6% | 29 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.94 | 51.5% | 29 Oct 06:15 |