| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.1% | 58% | -0.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 83.4% | 82% | +1.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 76.4% | 74% | +1.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 68% | -13.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 63.5% | 21.3% | 15.2% |
| xgboost | 59.7% | 25.5% | 14.8% |
| logistic | 64.1% | 23.1% | 12.8% |
| Brentford | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1753 | 1501 |
| Surface Elo | 1753 | 1501 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 21 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 4 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 7 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Bromley | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Chelsea | 3 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Bournemouth | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Sunderland | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Birmingham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Sep | H | West Brom | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | West Ham | 0 - 3 | L |
| 16 Mar 2021 | Derby | 2 - 2 | Brentford |
| 09 Dec 2020 | Brentford | 0 - 0 | Derby |
| 11 Jul 2020 | Derby | 1 - 3 | Brentford |
| 31 Aug 2019 | Brentford | 3 - 0 | Derby |
| 06 Apr 2019 | Brentford | 3 - 3 | Derby |
| 22 Sep 2018 | Derby | 3 - 1 | Brentford |
| 03 Feb 2018 | Derby | 3 - 0 | Brentford |
| 26 Sep 2017 | Brentford | 1 - 1 | Derby |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.25 | 23.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.48 | 67.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |