| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.8% | 38% | +11.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.3% | 81% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.7% | 52% | +11.1% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 62% | -7.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.2% | 25.3% | 32.6% |
| xgboost | 39.8% | 24.1% | 36.1% |
| logistic | 45.6% | 27.1% | 27.3% |
| Tamworth | Barrow | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1438 | 1368 |
| Surface Elo | 1438 | 1368 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Leeds | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Sutton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Sutton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Wealdstone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Wealdstone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Scunthorpe | 3 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Scunthorpe | 3 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Southend | 4 - 2 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |