| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.7% | 65% | -10.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| logistic | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | Miguel Tobon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1548 | 1538 |
| Surface Elo | 1548 | 1538 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.10 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.30 | 1.56 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 1.11 |
| Rest days | 15 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 1 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Lautaro Midon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Villalon Valdes, Nicolas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Oct | H | Daniel Salazar Martinez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Federico Zeballos | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | H | Nicolas Mejia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 28 Oct 06:15 |