OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-25
⚽ Eredivisie · Sunday 25 October 2026, 15:45 UTC · finished
Sparta Rotterdam 1.00 1 - 2 2.20 Ajax
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 60.3%67%-6.9%✓ hit
DCDraw or away 84.0%87%-3.1%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 78.6%83%-4.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 69.6%73%-3.4%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 65.2%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson20.2%23.4%56.4%
xgboost17.6%17.2%65.2%
logistic11.5%22.1%66.3%
Inputs the models saw
Sparta RotterdamAjax
Elo (pre-match)14921683
Surface Elo14921683
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.002.20
Form trend-0.500.20
Season points per game1.002.00
Season goals for / game1.783.00
Season goals against / game2.441.33
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W7 W · 3 D
Sparta Rotterdam: last 5
24 OctADe Treffers Groesbeek3 - 3D
17 OctHWillem II3 - 2W
17 OctHWillem II3 - 2W
17 OctAVolendam1 - 2L
10 OctAGo Ahead Eagles3 - 3D
Ajax: last 5
22 OctHAtalanta2 - 0W
18 OctAGroningen5 - 2W
18 OctAGroningen5 - 2W
15 OctAHNK Hajduk Split1 - 2L
10 OctHNijmegen1 - 1D
Head to head
14 Mar 2026Ajax4 - 0Sparta Rotterdam
04 Oct 2025Sparta Rotterdam3 - 3Ajax
27 Apr 2025Ajax1 - 1Sparta Rotterdam
22 Dec 2024Sparta Rotterdam0 - 2Ajax
17 Mar 2024Sparta Rotterdam2 - 2Ajax
09 Dec 2023Ajax2 - 1Sparta Rotterdam
19 Feb 2023Ajax4 - 0Sparta Rotterdam
21 Aug 2022Sparta Rotterdam0 - 1Ajax
09 Apr 2022Ajax2 - 1Sparta Rotterdam
28 Nov 2021Sparta Rotterdam0 - 1Ajax
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away1.5066.7%25 Oct 15:45
Bet3651X2draw4.7521.1%25 Oct 15:45
Bet3651X2home5.7517.4%25 Oct 15:45
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.3673.5%25 Oct 15:45
Bet365O/U 2.5under3.1032.3%25 Oct 15:45
SportyBet1X2away1.4867.6%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw5.3018.9%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home6.0116.6%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.3872.5%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.2031.2%25 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:05 UTC