| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.0% | 69% | -6.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| logistic | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| Daniil Medvedev | Roman Safiullin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1946 | 1850 |
| Surface Elo | 1946 | 1850 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Roman Safiullin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Coleman Wong | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Coleman Wong | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Valentin Royer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Valentin Royer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Bu Yunchaokete | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Yunchaokete Bu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Quentin Halys | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Quentin Halys | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | Roman Safiullin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.44 | 69.4% | 28 Sep 06:15 |