| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.1% | 37% | +7.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.3% | 81% | -7.2% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 57.1% | 49% | +8.2% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 72% | -9.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.5% | 23.6% | 29.8% |
| xgboost | 30.9% | 34.8% | 34.3% |
| logistic | 42.7% | 25.5% | 31.8% |
| Worthing | Southend | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1543 | 1567 |
| Surface Elo | 1543 | 1567 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 2.67 | 1.83 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.50 | 2.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Kidderminster | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Kidderminster | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Ipswich Town U21 | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Solihull | 5 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Solihull | 5 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Halifax | 2 - 2 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Halifax | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Boston Utd | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Boston Utd | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Fylde | 3 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.70 | 37.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |