| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 82.0% | 87% | -5.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 81.7% | 18.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 77.2% | 22.7% |
| logistic | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| Iga Swiatek | Maja Chwalinska | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1963 | 1643 |
| Surface Elo | 1963 | 1643 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.57 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.71 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.43 | 0.71 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 16 Oct | A | Ann Li | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Ashlyn Krueger | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Magdalena Frech | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Maja Chwalinska | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Ann Li | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Maria Sakkari | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Iva Jovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Mayar Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Sonay Kartal | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Iga Swiatek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Iga Swiatek | 0 - 2 | Maja Chwalinska |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.80 | 17.2% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.15 | 87.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |