| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.7% | 47% | +6.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| logistic | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| Samuele Pieri | Sandro Kopp | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1562 | 1470 |
| Surface Elo | 1562 | 1470 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.10 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 3 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Miguel Damas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Sandro Kopp | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Miguel Damas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Daniel Rincon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Daniel Rincon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Filippo Romano | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Alex Marti Pujolras | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Samuele Pieri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Samuele Pieri | 1 - 2 | Sandro Kopp |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.66 | 60.2% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 22 Oct 06:15 |