| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 45.0% | 34% | +10.8% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 73.7% | 64% | +9.7% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.2% | 48% | +12.3% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.1% | 54% | -3.1% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.9% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.2% | 27.0% | 26.8% |
| xgboost | 39.8% | 33.6% | 26.6% |
| logistic | 37.7% | 29.7% | 32.6% |
| Moreirense | Estrela | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1511 | 1446 |
| Surface Elo | 1511 | 1446 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 3 D |
| 25 Oct | A | Estoril | 3 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Estoril | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | AVS Futebol SAD | 0 - 1 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Gil Vicente | 0 - 1 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Gil Vicente | 0 - 1 | L |
| 25 Oct | H | CF Uniao de Lamas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Casa Pia | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Casa Pia | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | AD Fazendense | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Arouca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 02 May 2026 | Moreirense | 3 - 2 | Estrela |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Estrela | 0 - 0 | Moreirense |
| 02 Mar 2025 | Moreirense | 1 - 1 | Estrela |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Estrela | 2 - 1 | Moreirense |
| 07 Apr 2024 | Moreirense | 2 - 2 | Estrela |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Estrela | 0 - 1 | Moreirense |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.56 | 39.1% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.42 | 29.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.89 | 34.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.85 | 54.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |