| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.1% | 56% | +6.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 17.4% | 82.6% |
| logistic | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| Marcos Giron | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1713 | 1740 |
| Surface Elo | 1713 | 1740 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 36 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | H | Sebastian Baez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Sep | A | Ignacio Buse | 2 - 3 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Dhakshineswar Suresh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Aug | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Jul | A | Cruz Hewitt | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Marcos Giron | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Juncheng Shang | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Juncheng Shang | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | H | Jenson Brooksby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Jenson Brooksby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct 2026 | Marcos Giron | 1 - 2 | Sebastian Baez |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Marcos Giron | 0 - 2 | Sebastian Baez |
| 12 Aug 2024 | Marcos Giron | 1 - 2 | Sebastian Baez |
| 24 Apr 2023 | Marcos Giron | 1 - 2 | Sebastian Baez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.75 | 57.1% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 07 Oct 06:15 |