| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 48.1% | 63% | -14.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.2% | 84% | -9.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 63.0% | 81% | -17.6% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.6% | 66% | +7.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 34.6% | 27.8% | 37.7% |
| xgboost | 23.3% | 21.8% | 54.9% |
| logistic | 29.3% | 27.9% | 42.8% |
| Colchester | Luton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1444 | 1546 |
| Surface Elo | 1444 | 1546 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Shrewsbury | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Shrewsbury | 2 - 2 | D |
| 22 Sep | A | Peterborough United | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Cheltenham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cheltenham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Ipswich Town U21 | 6 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Bradford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Bradford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Sep | A | Stevenage | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Leyton Orient | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Mar 2018 | Colchester | 2 - 1 | Luton |
| 19 Aug 2017 | Luton | 3 - 0 | Colchester |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.59 | 62.9% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.25 | 23.5% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.80 | 20.8% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.52 | 65.8% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 03 Oct 06:15 |