| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.9% | 67% | -5.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 82.5% | 89% | -6.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 77.1% | 84% | -7.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 62% | -1.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 55.9% | 24.3% | 19.8% |
| xgboost | 66.3% | 18.8% | 14.9% |
| logistic | 60.4% | 23.9% | 15.7% |
| Freiburg | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1675 | 1555 |
| Surface Elo | 1675 | 1555 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.88 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.25 | 0.88 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 2.38 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 5 W · 4 D |
| 05 Nov | A | Trabzonspor | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Augsburg | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Augsburg | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Wolfsburg | 3 - 2 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Bayern München | 1 - 3 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | FC Koln | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Nov | H | FC Koln | 1 - 1 | D |
| 27 Oct | A | FC Koln | 0 - 5 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Augsburg | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Augsburg | 1 - 1 | D |
| 15 Mar 2026 | Freiburg | 0 - 1 | Union Berlin |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Union Berlin | 0 - 0 | Freiburg |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Freiburg | 1 - 2 | Union Berlin |
| 08 Nov 2024 | Union Berlin | 0 - 0 | Freiburg |
| 18 May 2024 | Union Berlin | 2 - 1 | Freiburg |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Freiburg | 0 - 0 | Union Berlin |
| 13 May 2023 | Union Berlin | 4 - 2 | Freiburg |
| 13 Nov 2022 | Freiburg | 4 - 1 | Union Berlin |
| 07 May 2022 | Freiburg | 1 - 4 | Union Berlin |
| 15 Dec 2021 | Union Berlin | 0 - 0 | Freiburg |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 7.00 | 14.3% | 08 Nov 16:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 08 Nov 16:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.45 | 69.0% | 08 Nov 16:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 08 Nov 16:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 08 Nov 16:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.64 | 15.1% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.96 | 20.2% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.64 | 61.0% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 08 Nov 06:15 |