| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.3% | 41% | +6.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.4% | 78% | -2.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 60.6% | 57% | +4.1% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.8% | 54% | +1.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.4% | 27.9% | 34.8% |
| xgboost | 32.7% | 24.9% | 42.4% |
| logistic | 23.6% | 28.1% | 48.4% |
| Port Vale | Chesterfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1411 | 1530 |
| Surface Elo | 1411 | 1530 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.70 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.13 | 1.40 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Mansfield | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Walsall | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Crawley Town | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Crawley Town | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Tranmere | 4 - 2 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Tranmere | 4 - 2 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Cheltenham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep 2026 | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | Port Vale |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | Port Vale |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Port Vale | 1 - 0 | Chesterfield |
| 30 Mar 2018 | Port Vale | 2 - 1 | Chesterfield |
| 19 Aug 2017 | Chesterfield | 2 - 0 | Port Vale |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.00 | 33.3% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.72 | 58.1% | 17 Oct 06:15 |