| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.6% | 68% | -11.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 56.5% | 43.4% |
| logistic | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| Pierluigi Basile | Giovanni Oradini | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1481 | 1407 |
| Surface Elo | 1481 | 1407 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 42 | 126 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | H | Tunas, Guillermo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | A | Maxim Mrva | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Jun | A | Marco Cecchinato | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Jun | A | Elmer Moller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Giuseppe La Vela | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Kody Pearson | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 May | H | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Sep | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Nov | A | Alexey Vatutin | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 21 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.47 | 68.0% | 21 Sep 06:15 |