OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ England Championship · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Birmingham 2.00 3 - 0 1.40 QPR
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 51.2%48%+3.1%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 77.7%76%+1.6%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 68.2%66%+2.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 58.3%52%+5.9%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 54.9%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson50.2%26.4%23.4%
xgboost48.7%28.5%22.8%
logistic48.3%26.2%25.5%
Inputs the models saw
BirminghamQPR
Elo (pre-match)16071538
Surface Elo16071538
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.40
Form trend-0.60-0.40
Season points per game2.331.67
Season goals for / game2.332.33
Season goals against / game0.671.33
Rest days32
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W4 W · 2 D
Birmingham: last 5
13 OctHPreston4 - 0W
13 OctHPreston North End4 - 0W
10 OctAWest Brom1 - 0W
10 OctAWest Brom1 - 0W
19 SepHMiddlesbrough2 - 2D
QPR: last 5
14 OctHDerby4 - 1W
14 OctHDerby4 - 1W
09 OctAWest Ham1 - 1D
09 OctAWest Ham1 - 1D
09 OctASouthampton1 - 5L
Head to head
11 Mar 2026Birmingham1 - 0QPR
09 Dec 2025QPR2 - 1Birmingham
29 Mar 2024QPR2 - 1Birmingham
22 Sep 2023Birmingham0 - 0QPR
18 Mar 2023QPR0 - 1Birmingham
28 Oct 2022Birmingham2 - 0QPR
02 Jan 2022Birmingham1 - 2QPR
28 Sep 2021QPR2 - 0Birmingham
27 Feb 2021Birmingham2 - 1QPR
24 Oct 2020QPR0 - 0Birmingham
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.5927.9%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.5927.9%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.1247.2%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9252.1%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9351.8%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:20 UTC