OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-07
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Championship · Saturday 07 November 2026, 15:00 UTC · finished
Cardiff 1.60 5 - 4 0.60 Burnley
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 46.2%49%-2.5%✓ hit
DCHome or away 74.7%79%-4.7%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 61.4%65%-3.2%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 58.9%66%-7.3%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 59.4%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson28.0%26.5%45.5%
xgboost55.7%26.9%17.4%
logistic50.4%26.1%23.4%
Inputs the models saw
CardiffBurnley
Elo (pre-match)15591499
Surface Elo15591499
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.600.60
Form trend0.50-0.10
Season points per game1.070.71
Season goals for / game1.571.29
Season goals against / game1.641.86
Rest days23
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W5 W · 1 D
Cardiff: last 5
04 NovHWest Ham3 - 3D
04 NovHWest Ham3 - 3D
02 NovABournemouth2 - 3L
31 OctAWolverhampton Wanderers0 - 3L
31 OctAWolverhampton Wanderers0 - 3L
Burnley: last 5
03 NovAQPR1 - 1D
03 NovAQPR1 - 1D
31 OctHPortsmouth0 - 0D
31 OctHPortsmouth0 - 0D
24 OctALincoln1 - 4L
Head to head
04 Mar 2025Cardiff1 - 2Burnley
17 Aug 2024Burnley5 - 0Cardiff
08 May 2023Burnley3 - 0Cardiff
01 Oct 2022Cardiff1 - 1Burnley
13 Apr 2019Burnley2 - 0Cardiff
30 Sep 2018Cardiff1 - 2Burnley
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.6027.8%07 Nov 15:00
Bet3651X2draw4.0025.0%07 Nov 15:00
Bet3651X2home1.8155.2%07 Nov 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.4469.4%07 Nov 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.7536.4%07 Nov 15:00
SportyBet1X2away3.4129.3%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.9925.1%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.0648.5%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4967.1%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.7037.0%07 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:02 UTC