| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.9% | 50% | +4.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.5% | 79% | +5.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 77.2% | 68% | +8.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.8% | 52% | +8.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 55.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 61.9% | 23.3% | 14.8% |
| xgboost | 43.1% | 37.3% | 19.6% |
| logistic | 63.4% | 23.8% | 12.8% |
| York | Port Vale | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1633 | 1431 |
| Surface Elo | 1633 | 1431 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.20 | 1.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Accrington | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | H | Accrington | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Newport County | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Newport County | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Northampton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Gillingham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Gillingham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Chesterfield | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Chesterfield | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.00 | 50.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.82 | 54.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.92 | 52.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |