| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.3% | 69% | -12.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.5% | 87% | -7.8% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 72.0% | 84% | -12.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 71% | -15.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 52.7% | 21.8% | 25.5% |
| xgboost | 57.9% | 21.3% | 20.8% |
| logistic | 63.9% | 21.8% | 14.3% |
| Hoffenheim | Hamburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1632 | 1557 |
| Surface Elo | 1632 | 1557 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 19 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Paderborn | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | SV Meppen 1912 | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Stuttgart | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Borussia Dortmund | 2 - 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | FC Koln | 2 - 3 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Copenhagen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | FC Koln | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | RB Leipzig | 0 - 5 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Mainz | 0 - 5 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Hamburg | 1 - 2 | Hoffenheim |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Hoffenheim | 4 - 1 | Hamburg |
| 14 Apr 2018 | Hoffenheim | 2 - 0 | Hamburg |
| 26 Nov 2017 | Hamburg | 3 - 0 | Hoffenheim |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.59 | 15.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.50 | 18.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.46 | 68.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.10 | 32.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |