| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.6% | 59% | -1.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| logistic | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Andrey Rublev | Roman Safiullin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1942 | 1881 |
| Surface Elo | 1942 | 1881 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Roman Safiullin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Tallon Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Tallon Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Andrey Rublev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Flavio Cobolli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Flavio Cobolli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct 2026 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | Roman Safiullin |
| 29 Jun 2026 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 3 | Roman Safiullin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.70 | 58.8% | 02 Oct 06:15 |