| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 68.7% | 87% | -18.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 74.8% | 25.1% |
| logistic | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| Mattia Bellucci | Elias Ymer | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1743 | 1544 |
| Surface Elo | 1743 | 1544 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 16 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Lloyd Harris | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Yanki Erel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Adam Walton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Alexandre Muller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Filip Peliwo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Federico Cina | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Terence Atmane | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Marat Sharipov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Sep | H | Luca Castelnuovo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Marat Sharipov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Aug 2024 | Elias Ymer | 0 - 2 | Mattia Bellucci |
| 02 Oct 2023 | Elias Ymer | 2 - 1 | Mattia Bellucci |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.90 | 17.0% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.15 | 87.0% | 05 Oct 06:15 |