| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 50.7% | 33% | +17.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 77.6% | 79% | -1.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 65.5% | 44% | +21.4% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 67% | -0.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 64.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.8% | 26.4% | 33.9% |
| xgboost | 25.7% | 35.1% | 39.2% |
| logistic | 13.6% | 11.1% | 75.3% |
| Duisburg | FC Koln | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1403 | 1526 |
| Surface Elo | 1403 | 1526 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.67 | 1.86 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.14 |
| Rest days | 2709 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 13 Oct | A | 1. FC Saarbrucken | 4 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Hoffenheim | 3 - 2 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 May | A | Hamburg | 0 - 3 | L |
| 12 May | H | Heidenheim | 3 - 4 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 - 1 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 - 1 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Stuttgart | 0 - 1 | L |
| 14 Oct | H | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Oct | A | Rot-Weiss Essen | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Apr 2019 | Duisburg | 4 - 4 | FC Koln |
| 08 Oct 2018 | FC Koln | 1 - 2 | Duisburg |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.55 | 39.2% | 18 Oct 06:15 |