| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.5% | 57% | -1.7% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.8% | 82% | -1.5% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.3% | 76% | -2.4% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% | 55% | +11.7% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.6% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 53.2% | 25.0% | 21.8% |
| xgboost | 59.6% | 21.3% | 19.1% |
| logistic | 55.0% | 25.3% | 19.6% |
| Bologna | Monza | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1697 | 1555 |
| Surface Elo | 1697 | 1555 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 2 D |
| 28 Oct | A | Ac Milan | 4 - 2 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | Ac Milan | 4 - 2 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Cagliari | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Cagliari | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Inter | 1 - 3 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Napoli | 1 - 4 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Napoli | 1 - 4 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Torino | 2 - 3 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Torino | 2 - 3 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Cagliari | 4 - 0 | W |
| 18 Jan 2025 | Bologna | 3 - 1 | Monza |
| 22 Sep 2024 | Monza | 1 - 2 | Bologna |
| 13 Apr 2024 | Bologna | 0 - 0 | Monza |
| 28 Sep 2023 | Monza | 0 - 0 | Bologna |
| 12 Feb 2023 | Bologna | 0 - 1 | Monza |
| 31 Oct 2022 | Monza | 1 - 2 | Bologna |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.04 | 24.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.75 | 57.1% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |