OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-24
🇪🇸 La Liga · Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:30 UTC · finished
Valencia 1.00 1 - 2 1.40 Villarreal
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 47.1%46%+1.1%✓ hit
DCHome or away 74.9%76%-0.8%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 61.3%63%-1.6%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 52.8%47%+6.3%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 48.5%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson30.9%25.7%43.4%
xgboost30.3%29.0%40.7%
logistic24.6%28.3%47.2%
Inputs the models saw
ValenciaVillarreal
Elo (pre-match)16031686
Surface Elo16031686
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.001.40
Form trend0.000.10
Season points per game0.671.00
Season goals for / game0.671.44
Season goals against / game1.671.44
Rest days67
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W5 W · 3 D
Valencia: last 5
17 OctHAthletic Club0 - 0D
17 OctHAthletic Club0 - 0D
11 OctASantander2 - 2D
11 OctASantander2 - 2D
10 OctAElche1 - 4L
Villarreal: last 5
17 OctHElche0 - 0D
10 OctAReal Madrid0 - 1L
20 SepHLevante3 - 1W
17 SepAMalaga3 - 1W
14 SepHBetis1 - 2L
Head to head
22 Feb 2026Villarreal2 - 1Valencia
25 Oct 2025Valencia0 - 2Villarreal
15 Feb 2025Villarreal1 - 1Valencia
31 Aug 2024Valencia1 - 1Villarreal
17 Mar 2024Villarreal1 - 0Valencia
02 Jan 2024Valencia3 - 1Villarreal
03 May 2023Valencia1 - 1Villarreal
31 Dec 2022Villarreal2 - 1Valencia
19 Apr 2022Villarreal2 - 0Valencia
30 Oct 2021Valencia2 - 0Villarreal
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.0548.8%24 Oct 17:30
Bet3651X2draw3.6027.8%24 Oct 17:30
Bet3651X2home3.5028.6%24 Oct 17:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.7357.8%24 Oct 17:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.1047.6%24 Oct 17:30
SportyBet1X2away2.2045.5%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.6727.3%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.4329.1%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7258.1%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2045.5%24 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:52 UTC