| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.2% | 69% | -11.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| logistic | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Diego Dedura | Nicolas Kicker | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1622 | 1628 |
| Surface Elo | 1622 | 1628 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.88 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Frazier Rengifo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Nicolas Kicker | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Adria Soriano Barrera | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Moise Kouame | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Diego Dedura | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Facundo Mena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Thiago Cigarran | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Diego Dedura | 2 - 0 | Nicolas Kicker |
| 20 Jul 2026 | Diego Dedura | 2 - 0 | Nicolas Kicker |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.65 | 37.7% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.44 | 69.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |