OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-03
⚽ League Two · Saturday 03 October 2026, 11:30 UTC · finished
Chesterfield 1.60 4 - 2 1.20 Tranmere
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 56.9%61%-3.9%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 82.2%87%-4.6%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 74.8%80%-5.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 49.2%60%-10.3%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 53.4%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson58.9%22.5%18.6%
xgboost65.7%20.6%13.7%
logistic67.9%21.0%11.1%
Inputs the models saw
ChesterfieldTranmere
Elo (pre-match)15301343
Surface Elo15301343
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.601.20
Form trend0.000.20
Season points per game1.381.38
Season goals for / game1.381.25
Season goals against / game1.251.00
Rest days66
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W1 W · 2 D
Chesterfield: last 5
26 SepACheltenham1 - 2L
26 SepACheltenham1 - 2L
22 SepHPort Vale1 - 1D
19 SepHYork2 - 0W
19 SepHYork2 - 0W
Tranmere: last 5
26 SepHWalsall1 - 1D
26 SepHWalsall1 - 1D
22 SepHShrewsbury1 - 0W
19 SepAExeter0 - 0D
19 SepAExeter0 - 0D
Head to head
11 Apr 2026Chesterfield1 - 1Tranmere
25 Oct 2025Tranmere1 - 1Chesterfield
05 Apr 2025Tranmere4 - 0Chesterfield
07 Dec 2024Chesterfield3 - 0Tranmere
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away4.7521.1%03 Oct 12:30
Bet3651X2draw4.1024.4%03 Oct 12:30
Bet3651X2home1.5763.7%03 Oct 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.6560.6%03 Oct 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.2045.5%03 Oct 12:30
SportyBet1X2away4.7521.1%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.0025.0%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6759.9%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6660.2%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2045.5%03 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:07 UTC