| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.4% | 39% | +11.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.7% | 67% | +9.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.1% | 54% | +12.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 61% | -2.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 51.1% | 25.6% | 23.3% |
| xgboost | 46.1% | 25.2% | 28.6% |
| logistic | 49.8% | 25.9% | 24.2% |
| Lens | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1746 | 1715 |
| Surface Elo | 1746 | 1715 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.80 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.43 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.71 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.57 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 1 W · 2 D |
| 21 Oct | A | Club Brugge | 0 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Troyes | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Troyes | 3 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Sporting | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Lyon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Rennes | 4 - 3 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Rennes | 4 - 3 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Quevilly Rouen | 3 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Lorient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Lorient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Paris FC | 0 - 5 | Lens |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Lens | 2 - 1 | Paris FC |
| 02 Mar 2020 | Paris FC | 0 - 2 | Lens |
| 28 Sep 2019 | Lens | 2 - 1 | Paris FC |
| 03 Mar 2019 | Paris FC | 2 - 0 | Lens |
| 28 Sep 2018 | Lens | 0 - 0 | Paris FC |
| 30 Apr 2018 | Lens | 1 - 0 | Paris FC |
| 08 Dec 2017 | Paris FC | 2 - 2 | Lens |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.88 | 34.7% | 24 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 24 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 24 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 24 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 24 Oct 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.69 | 37.2% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.63 | 38.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.61 | 62.1% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 24 Oct 06:15 |